Monday, January 18, 2010
Economic recovery faces serious hurdles
Sunday, January 10, 2010
8 Tax Strategies to Consider in 2010
Strategy #1: Fund your Retirement:
Strategy #2: Hold Off on the Roth IRA Conversion:
Strategy #3: Sell Losing Investments (and Big Winners):
Strategy #4: Capital Gains Tax Cuts:
Long-term capital gains result from profit made via appreciation of a security (stock, fund, etc.) held for more than one year.
Strategy #5: When you Donate to a 501(c)(3), Everyone Wins:
Strategy #6: Prepay your January, 2010 Mortgage:
Strategy #7: Get Healthy on your Medical Bills:
Strategy #8: Prepare for 2010:
Sunday, January 3, 2010
Why should Fed raise the rate now ?
On October 9, 2009, the Financial Times reported that the Fed was testing a key tool for draining liquidity from the financial system. Ten days later, the Fed confirmed that it had in fact been conducting reverse repos, but the tests were not an indication of a change in monetary policy.
That same day, a Barron's cover article appeared, sharply suggesting Fed chairman Ben Bernanke should already be raising rates and removing liquidity. The article cited that gold, oil and other commodities, as well as the stock market were are already rising, and that the dollar was falling. These are all signs of excess money in the system.
Clearly Fed is aware that it will need to remove the excess liquidity and raise rates in the future. But at this point, it's not exactly sure, or it isn't saying, when that will be, and it's staying the course despite the calls to do otherwise. This is the smart strategy, and here's why.
A Difficult Balancing Act
The mandate of the Federal Reserve is simple to understand, but complicated to accomplish. It desires stable prices and low unemployment, a difficult balancing act to say the least. The most important thing is stable prices, hopefully rising slowly at around 3% per year. This allows growth without excess inflation. Also, it is more important to fight inflation than high unemployment as inflation hurts everyone. Unemployment, even at today's high levels, impacts far fewer people. So first things first, stable prices, then low unemployment.
When inflation is low and unemployment is high, the focus is on increasing economic activity and reducing unemployment. This is the situation today. So, while the signs of potential inflation are taking shape, higher stock market and commodity prices along with a lower dollar, prices of goods and services haven't been rising very much, if any. Until this changes, it's likely the Fed will stay the course and not raise rates.
Differing Goals
The goals of the pundits can differ from this. They can call for a stronger dollar - making that their primary goal. The problem with that is the moves to increase the value of the dollar would likely slow the economy and increase unemployment. So it would be at odds with the Fed's goals. Other pundits may desire leaving the excess liquidity in the system to push the market rally even further. Again, that isn't the Fed's goal. The Fed decision making doesn't stray too far from its mandate of stable prices and high employment. To do so would risk not accomplishing one, or possible both, of those primary objectives. While others may suggest policy shifts to push their goals, it's unlikely the Fed will listen.
Another major difference in the Fed and the pundits is that the Fed typically needs to see evidence that something is happening before it acts. The pundits espouse a future that may or may not come to fruition. It's the difference between thinking we are going to have inflation, and actually having it. This lag can drive those that were correct crazy, but it's the only sensible course of action. The alternative would be to have the Fed try to anticipate economic activity before it occurs and act to offset it. The Fed correctly leaves the reading of the tea leaves to the tradder and pundits and acts based on evidence, not projections.
Careful Planning
Also, the Fed is keenly aware of the importance of the message it sends to the markets. It's crucial that confidence in its leadership be maintained and that it doesn't send mixed messages. A confused market creates panic. Typically, interest rate moves by the Fed have been in small, steady increments, and changes in direction were clearly telegraphed so as not to shock the markets. However, on the rare occasion when the Fed wants to get the market's attention, it has moved interest rates between meetings and in larger increments. That's very unlikely here.
Most firms don't hire people until demand for their products and a service exists, so employment is typically a lagging indicator of economic activity. In other words, firms need to sell more products and services before they hire more people. And, of course,selling more products and services can be inflationary. Therefore, the most likely course from here is that inflation will increase before unemployment totally subsides.
Future Fed Moves
Though the Fed is staying put right now, it's very likely that it will be raising rates and reducing liquidity before strong employment returns. But it won't take this action because of an article in a paper, or a pundit on television. It will need to see evidence of prices rising before it raises interest rate. But once the Fed does see that evidence, the pieces are being put in place already, and it will act.
Tuesday, December 29, 2009
Top 2010 Job-Hunting Tips
Hunting for a job is like selling a product, except that YOU are the product. When a product doesn't sell, the main reason is that there isn't any demand for it, or the demand is elsewhere. If you are hunting for a job, then either change the demand for the product or look for demand elsewhere. Simply put, you can't sell a product that no one wants.
Change What You're Selling
If your dream job or your career of choice isn't hiring and you need a job, then change what you are selling to what people are buying. It's easy to slip into the mindset that you are looking for a specific job. Of course, start with your passion. But if there isn't any demand for it, wishing for demand won't work. Also, trying to stay in a closely related area probably won't work either. You need to find where demand is hot. For example, if you want to be a movie producer and they aren't hiring, then the obvious move is start looking to be a television producer. But it's highly likely that they aren't hiring either.
Change the focus entirely by looking for demand for a related job instead. If your offer was to sell your services as a movie producer, and there are no takers, then change your offer to sell your services as a project manager or an administrative assistant.
Then, once you have that, build the contacts and resume to get that dream job when there is an opening. Some might think of this as the strategy used by those that want to become paid actors, and so they take jobs waiting tables or tending bar. That's basically it, except the odds on you getting a job in your career of choice are substantially higher than the odds on an aspiring actor becoming the next Robert De Niro.
Hot Jobs for 2010
In 2010 things are going to be changing. Potentially hot areas would include the following:
- Medical Records – The healthcare legislation notwithstanding, more hospitals are going digital and they will need help. And if legislation provides funds, it could boom.
- Compliance or Regulatory Director – New rules for firms are making things more complex and that means they need to hire people that can learn, understand and apply them.
- Census – The 2010 census won't be long-term employment, but they will be hiring hundreds of thousands of workers. It won't be your dream job, but the paychecks won't bounce.
- Sales Reps – As the economy crashed and sales fell, sales reps were easily let go. But many companies won't be able to increase sales when demand picks up if they don't hire more sales reps. The pay may not be as good as it was if you were in the business at the peak, but someone has to take the order or there is no business.
- Teach – While full-time tenure track positions require an act of Congress, part time adjunct positions are available. It's not great money, but it's money. Also, look for training, instructor, and other related positions as they will still be in demand as level of employment won't increase overnight. (Once you get a call back, there's still more work to be done.
Geographic Change
The recession has hit inconsistently across the country. This means localized economic strife. There are many areas in the world that are doing better than the U.S. If demand for your product isn't strong in the area your selling it, then you need to find another area. In other words, you need to fish where the fish are. Of course, this usually means you will have to move and that can be hard for some people. If so, then go back to the previous suggestion and change what you are offering.
To find demand elsewhere, obviously start with online job searches that have geographic information. Many of you are probably doing this already. But go beyond that and try to find out where opportunities are hottest. Where are all the jobs in your line of work? Then learn about that area. Who's the big player? Who's the best fit for you? Who can you contact to give you the inside scoop? The more information you have the better. If there isn't a hot area, then go back to changing the product, and use that information to go beyond the job boards. Get on the phone, network, use social media, and even go and knock on doors.
Bottom Line
Markets are about supply and demand. If there is no demand, supply isn't going to sell. To find a job or close the sale, you need to sell the customer what they want to buy at a price they are willing to pay. Think about it from the opposite side of the table. Who hires people they don't need? Nobody. So if you want a job, find a need and fill it. (For more tips on job hunting,
Friday, December 25, 2009
Most amazing facts.
Wednesday, December 23, 2009
The BEST deal for investors: Wine and Chocolate
Sweet Returns
The U.S. may have been in a recession in 2008, but the U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC) reported that the average U.S. consumer spent 1.1% more on candy ($92.91). The increase appears to have been caused by escalating confection ingredient prices, because the actual amount of candy purchased decreased 4% to 23.8 pounds. According to the National Confectioners Association (NCA), candy makers reaped a 35% profit margin on retail sales. The industry thrives on holiday purchases, with most sales occurring around Valentine's Day, Easter, Halloween and Christmas. What does this mean for investors? The cyclical candy sector may be a tasty portfolio treat.
The Industry
The returns may be tantalizing, but don't just grab at the first sweet opportunity; the $28 billion retail candy industry is very competitive. New and improved products keep consumers coming back, and many companies are working on offering more sugar-free and lower calorie choices. But the biggest seller is chocolate. The recent increased media hype around the health benefits of dark chocolate have given the industry a boost. According to recent research, chocolate containing 70% or more cacao is said to have high levels of antioxidants, which help fight heart disease. Now that's a sweet deal!
Merger and acquisition is a common growth strategy for the confection industry. There are more than 300 major American candy producers. Some of the biggest names are privately held, like Mars and Jelly Belly, but investors can buy shares in The Hershey Company (NYSE:HSY), which currently holds 42% of the U.S. market. The company's recent share price reflects operations struggles, but with a price-to-earnings ratio of 20 - compared to an industry average of 33 - it appears to be a good value. Earnings per share growth is actually down 11% over the last three years, and the company is currently in talks to buy European competitor Cadbury (NYSE:CBY).
American candy exports increased 20% last year, so investors who are looking to diversify may also consider European American depositary note (ADR) Nestle (OTC:NSRGY). Other companies also profit from candy sales. Discount retail giant Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT), for example, is the leading American candy retailer, with 12.8% of the market according to NCA and DOC shipment reports.
Cheers!
What's the best beverage for washing down a fine piece of chocolate? A glass of wine, of course! In 2009, the Wine Institute reported data from Gomberg, Fredrikson & Associates, which indicates that U.S. consumption of sparkling wine or champagne bounced back to pre-recession numbers, with 8.2 million cases sold in 2008. Americans enjoyed 2.48 gallons of wine per person. Wine imports to the U.S. account for 25% of consumption, mostly from Europe, but wine is increasingly imported from Australia, New Zealand, Canada, South Africa, Argentina and Chile. U.S. wine exports are also increasing. (For background reading, see Parched For Profits? Try Beverage Stocks.)
The U.S. wine industry is highly fragmented. The Department of Commerce reported an 81% increase in the number of wineries since 1999 to about 5,000. The Department of the Treasury Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau's November Wine Report documents that more than 400 million bottles of wine were produced from January to September, 2009.
New York based Constellation Brands (NYSE:STZ) is the largest wine company in the world, with numerous domestic and international holdings which include beer, wine and spirits. Constellation Brands holds 15% of the U.S. wine market with popular wine brands like Robert Mondavi and Arbor Mist. Competition has made it increasingly difficult to make a profit. The company has been selling off brands and paying down debt.
The U.S. government carefully controls the manufacture, distribution and sale of alcoholic beverages. Ongoing regulation tweaks address concerns such as sales directly from manufacturers to consumers, internet purchases from retailers and widely differing state laws. Most wine distribution and wholesale companies are privately held, with companies like Costco (Nasdaq:COST) blurring the line between retail and wholesale. The $25 billion wine retail industry is flourishing, with new wine-tasting franchises increasing the availability of products to consumers. Retailers are also cutting out the middle man. Wal-Mart and E&J Gallo inked a deal s to offer "store-brand" bottles of wine to customers.
The Bottom Line
The wine and candy industries are complex and fluid, but worth tasting. Investors should consider the entire supply chain. When paired with a diverse portfolio, sugar and alcohol should satisfy a discriminating investor's palate.
Friday, December 18, 2009
5 Ways To Control Emotional Spending
Emotional spending occurs when you buy something you don't need and, in some cases, don't even really want, as a result of feeling stressed out, bored, under-appreciated, incompetent, unhappy, or any number of other emotions. In fact, we even spend emotionally when we're happy - what did you buy yourself the last time you got a raise? There's nothing wrong with buying yourself nice things from time to time as long as you can afford them and your finances are in order, but if you're spending more than you'd like to on non-necessities or are struggling to find the cash to pay the bills or pay down your credit card debt, learning to recognize and curb your emotional spending can be an important tool. While avoiding emotional spending completely is probably not a realistic goal for most people, there are some steps you can take to decrease the damage it does to your wallet. (When you do have to shop, shop smart. To learn how, see Five Money-Saving Shopping Tips.)
Impulse Buys
One way to cut down on emotional spending is to avoid making impulse purchases - and that doesn't just mean you should avoid buying gum in the checkout line at the grocery store. Whenever you're at a store - whether brick-and-mortar or online - and you find yourself wanting to buy something you didn't already want before you got there, don't buy it. Make yourself wait at least 24 hours, if not longer, before making a decision about whether to buy the item. You'll often forget about the item as soon as you leave the store. If, after 24 hours, you still really want it but a nagging voice in your head is telling you that you don't need it or can't afford it, try to postpone the purchase for a week or a month so you can think more clearly about the decision. If it helps, keep a wish list of the items you've refrained from buying so that you can ask for them when your birthday comes around or pick them up when you know you can afford them. (To read more about how waiting a day or two can save you big bucks, check out Patience Pays For Consumers.)
Keep the Ad Man At Bay
Take steps to intentionally limit your exposure to advertising. The less you are aware of what's available for you to buy, the less likely you are to develop a sudden "need" for that item. Unsubscribe to the product catalogs that arrive in your mailbox and the promotional emails your favorite stores are always sending you. To further avoid internet advertising, download a program that blocks ads and prevents them from appearing on your screen.
Prevent yourself from receiving unsolicited offers for credit and insurance by providing your name, address, date of birth and social security number to Opt-Out Prescreen. If you have a device that records television shows, skipping commercials is easy. To avoid hearing ads on the radio, switch to public radio, streaming internet radio, a CD player, or an MP3 player. If your spending problem is bad enough, consider unsubscribing from magazines, which are usually full of ads.
Limit Temptation
The next step is to limit your exposure to the situations that tempt you to spend. If it's the mall, plan to visit only a couple times a year, or try shopping online instead. If online shopping is the problem, find other, non-shopping websites to occupy your time, or replace some of your internet time with another activity. If you always find yourself spending more when a particular friend or relative is around, try to schedule free or inexpensive activities with that person, like getting coffee, cooking dinner, or going for a walk.
Make Yourself Accountable
Another helpful strategy is to find ways to hold yourself accountable for your spending. The people you live with or spend the most time with can be your best defense. Tell them that you're trying to spend less, and that you want them to give you a hard time when they see you making an unnecessary purchase. Also, make a list of your financial priorities and put it in a place where you'll see it often, like the refrigerator door or the bathroom mirror, and make a second copy for your wallet, where you'll see it each time you reach for your cash. If you want to take it a step further, put small sticky notes on your credit cards to remind yourself of what you're saving up for.
Find Alternative Activities
If you frequently use shopping as a form of entertainment or as a distraction, try to identify what you're feeling when you want to buy something and choose a more constructive behavior that will help you deal with that emotion. For example, if you've had a bad day at work and want to treat yourself to something nice, call a friend or two. If you're feeling stressed out, get some exercise. If you really just have to buy something, make it something simple and inexpensive, like a book or a small bouquet of flowers - but don't do this every time, because those small purchases really do add up!
Severe Overspending
The simple steps we've discussed may not be enough to address the most extreme cases of emotional spending. For some people, shopping is much more than a pastime - it's actually an addiction called oniomania. While it may not seem like a dangerous addiction, many of the psychological characteristics of compulsive shopping are identical to those of chemical dependency.
Compulsive shoppers tend to spend more than they can afford. They get a rush of endorphins from making purchases, but that rush is often accompanied by feelings of anxiety and guilt over not being able to control the urge to shop or not knowing how the bills will get paid when the latest binge is over. The shame that results from these binges can result in a person hiding his or her purchases and straining relationships when the person feels compelled to lie about the time or money being funneled into the addiction. People with this problem may take a second job to try to accommodate their out-of-control spending habits, but until they address their impulse control problem and the underlying emotional issues that lead them to their destructive shopping sprees, no amount of money will stop the cycle. Due to the sheer number of purchases made and the shame surrounding the habit, many compulsive shoppers have loads of items that have never been used and still have their price tags attached.
If you think you or someone you know may have a shopping addiction, 4Therapy.com's compulsive shopping quiz might provide some answers. As with any other addiction, identifying the problem is the first step toward overcoming it.
Conclusion
The goal here isn't to stop buying anything fun - if we didn't occasionally buy enjoyable things with our money, it would be difficult to get up and go to work every day. However, by becoming more conscious of your shopping habits, you'll develop greater control over your finances and you'll be able to really enjoy the purchases you make without the dread and guilt of having spent too much.